Doll’s Deliberations

Markets Continue to Assume War Will End and Oil Will Fall

Bob Doll reviews a market rally driven by strong Q1 earnings and tech gains, with energy leading as Brent nears $100/barrel. Equity indexes hit record closes amid optimism that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen and oil prices will ease.
He warns that continued geopolitical uncertainty could keep oil and input costs elevated, making inflation stickier and posing a tail risk to corporate profits. Crossmark remains risk-on but watchful for prolonged supply shocks and upcoming Fed guidance.
For a copy of this week Doll's Deliberations click on the following link April 27 or go to www.crosssmarkglobal.com for additional insight and investment solutions.

Is There a Deal?-- Market Thinks Yes.

Bob Doll's Weekly Investment Commentary (April 20, 2026) reviews a strong week for equities—S&P +4.5%, NASDAQ nearly +7%, Russell 2000 +3.9%—as markets reacted to growing optimism about an end to the U.S.-Iran conflict.
Technology, consumer discretionary and communication services led gains while energy and utilities lagged. Oil’s spike appears to have peaked and the gap between spot and 12‑month forward prices has narrowed, but supply and price normalization will be gradual and uneven.
The outlook assumes a durable ceasefire and resilient global corporate profits that support continued risk-on positioning; however, earnings, valuations, inflation trends and potential setbacks from the conflict will determine whether returns are broadly positive.
Key takeaways include ceasefire optimism, resilient macro data despite the energy shock, rising near-term inflation expectations, narrow market breadth during the rally, and the crucial role of earnings and policy in shaping markets ahead.
For a copy of this week's Doll's Deliberations click on the following link April 20 or go to www.crossmarkglobal.com for additional insight and investment solutions.

Cease Fire - But Will It Hold

Bob Doll summarizes markets after a fragile Middle East ceasefire and its impact on oil, inflation, and investor positioning. Stocks rose while sectors rotated, credit spreads stayed tame, and the outlook depends on whether the ceasefire holds and energy prices cool.
Key takeaways include mixed economic data, higher payrolls, sticky price pressures, and a strategy favoring a higher stock-to-bond ratio if global growth persists — balanced with the risk of renewed conflict, inflation, or recession.
For a copy of this week's Doll's Deliberations click on the following link April 13 or go to www.crossmarkglobal.com for additional insight and investment solutions.

Q1 2026 Review: Oil Surge, Iran War & Rising Recession Risk

This episode is a quarterly review of Q1 2026 covering market moves, geopolitical shocks, and economic outlook. Stocks and bonds retreated while oil rallied sharply after the Iran conflict; the S&P 500 fell, Nasdaq slid further, and small caps held modest gains.
Earnings were stronger-than-expected with rising 2026 EPS estimates that compressed the S&P's forward P/E as prices fell. The report discusses sector winners (energy, materials) and losers (tech, financials, consumer discretionary), the private credit risks, and shifting Fed expectations.
The show concludes with outlook and risks: higher inflation and rates, elevated recession odds if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and the conditions needed for the bull market to resume.
For a copy of this week's Doll's Deliberations click on the following link April 6 or go to www.crossmarkglobal.com for additional insight and investment solutions.

New Hope in the Continued Bumpy Ride of War

Stocks fell sharply amid renewed Middle East conflict fears, with the S&P down 2% and NASDAQ extending losses. Energy and materials led gains while communication services lagged, and a choppy rally reflected hopes for ceasefire talks.
The episode explains why the war is likely to leave a lasting inflationary footprint, pushing yields higher and creating a stagflationary bias even as growth faces only modest drag. Investors should expect continued volatility, sector rotation, and higher-for-longer rates.
For a copy of this week's Doll's Deliberations click on the following link March 30 or go to www.crossmarkglobal.com for additional insight and investment solutions.

War Continues to Hurt Risk Assets

Stocks fell for a fourth week as the Middle East conflict and volatile oil prices pushed investors toward safety. Energy and financials held up while utilities, materials and consumer staples lagged, and the market is wrestling with uncertainty about energy supplies and inflation.
The Fed paused on rates while inflation remains stubbornly above targets. Crossmark recommends a cautious asset mix — neutral equities, overweight cash, and underweight bonds — expecting further near-term weakness but a likely rebound once clarity on oil and supply risks emerges.
For a copy of this week's Doll's Deliberations click on the following link March 23 or go to www.crossmarkglobal.com for additional insight and investment solutions.

War Unknowns Dominate Market the Dialogue

Bob Doll reviews markets as Middle East conflict drives oil prices and investor concern. While the S&P 500 held roughly flat, the NASDAQ has softened, and energy-led price shocks raise the risk of higher headline inflation amid otherwise solid global growth.
Despite volatile moves across equities, bonds, gold and crypto, Doll concludes the recent energy shock has not yet derailed the expansion or market trends, though prolonged disruption could tip the outlook toward stagflation and weaker corporate profits.
For a copy of this week's Doll's Deliberations click on the following link March 16 or go to www.crossmarkglobal.com for additional insight and investment solutions.

With the War Upset Global Economic Momentum?

Markets fell after the Iran attack, with the S&P down about 2% as investors rotated to cash amid geopolitical risk, stretched AI-related valuations, private credit concerns, and elevated earnings expectations.
Sectors diverged: energy held up while materials, staples, healthcare and industrials led losses. Short-term volatility and oil sensitivity are elevated, but broad macro momentum, accommodative policy, and supply potential make a severe global slowdown unlikely unless the conflict escalates dramatically.
Conclusion: It is premature to overhaul a 6–12 month investment strategy. Stay cautious on U.S. equity valuations and bonds over the next year, favor geographic diversification including international and emerging markets, monitor oil and inflation, and separate short-term noise from fundamentals.
For a copy of this week's Doll's Deliberations click on the following link March 9 or go to www.crossmarkglobal.com for additional insight and investment solutions.

Lower Bond Yields Prevent Further Equity Damage

Stocks were mixed last week as the S&P fell modestly while equal-weighted indexes and many non-U.S. markets outperformed. Big tech weakness—led by a nearly 7% drop in NVIDIA—contrasted with gains in utilities, consumer staples, healthcare, and energy.
The episode argues that calmer or lower U.S. Treasury yields have supported risk assets despite AI-driven dislocations, tariff uncertainty, and geopolitical oil-risk. Key risks include sticky inflation delaying Fed easing, tariff developments, and possible Middle East-driven oil spikes; however, while yields remain flat to lower, the risk‑on backdrop is likely to persist.
For a copy of this week's Doll's Deliberations, click on the following link March 2 or go to www.crossmarkglobal.com for additional insight and investment solutions.

Similarities to 1999/2000

Bob Doll recaps the week: S&P gains led by big tech and cyclical sectors, mixed sector performance, and largely favorable Q4 earnings while investors rotate away from overpriced internet names. He compares current market dynamics to 1999–2000 but notes the broader market’s appetite remains supported by corporate profits and accommodative financial conditions.
The outlook stresses sticky inflation, potential future rate and yield increases, and tight corporate credit spreads—factors that warrant caution but do not yet signal a broad-based bear market. Investors should stay watchful but not prematurely bearish.
For a copy of this week's Doll's Deliberations click on the following link February 23 or go to www.crossmarkglobal.com for additional insight and investment solutions.