Doll’s Deliberations

Sector and Geographic Rotation Continues

This episode reviews a market rotation from mega‑cap tech into cyclicals and international stocks: equal‑weighted S&P outperformed while the cap‑weighted S&P declined, with utilities, real estate and materials leading and financials and communication services lagging.
Volatility stems from fading hopes for easy monetary policy, sticky inflation, and higher long‑term yields, prompting investors to shift into laggards and abroad (notably Japan and emerging markets) even as earnings revisions slow and factor divergences widen.
Takeaway: the rotation away from U.S. growth stocks continues, but risks from bond‑market repricing or policy mistakes could trigger a broader de‑risking.
For a copy of this week's Doll's Deliberation click on the following link February 17 or go to www.crossmarkglobal.com for additional insight and investment solutions.

Accommodative Policies Continue to Fuel Asset Prices

Bob Doll reviews last week’s mixed market action, noting S&P highs, sector winners and losers, and a big Friday rally. He argues that continued accommodative monetary and fiscal policies are supporting asset prices but warns that fundamentals—not liquidity—should guide investing.
The episode outlines a broadly positive macro outlook, highlights risks from rising yields, inflation surprises, AI rotation, and geopolitical or credit shocks, and lists ten key market takeaways including slowing savings, dividend importance, and a notable Texas special election result.
For a copy of this week's Doll's Deliberations click on the following link February 9 or go to www.crossmarkglobal.com for additional insight and investment solutions.

Good Earnings and Benign Fed Continue Despite Valuations Obstacles

Bob Doll reviews a mixed week for markets: S&P 500 near record highs, sector rotation out of the U.S., strong corporate earnings, and buoyant liquidity supporting asset prices. Meanwhile, gold’s rally and stress at the long end of yield curves signal growing investor unease.
Tight credit spreads, flat income growth, and falling foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries increase the risk of a bond-market shock that could trigger a risk-off phase. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic but vigilant for catalysts that could prompt de-risking.
For a copy of this week's Doll's Deliberations click on the following link February 2 or go to www.crossmarkglobal.com for additional insight and investment solutions.

De-escalation and Rising Yields: Markets Face a New Regime

Bob Doll reviews last week’s market moves: stocks slipped, the dollar fell sharply, and gold hit a new record as geopolitics and policy headlines dominated.
The episode explains how Japan’s election and proposed fiscal stimulus are lifting global bond yields, why the Fed may have limited room to ease further, and the two main risks for markets—rising sovereign yields and potential policy missteps.
Also covered: sector winners and losers, credit conditions, rotation into value and small caps, and implications for investors as global anchors shift and market trends face possible correction.
For a copy of this week's Doll's Deliberations click on the following link January 26 or go to www.crossmarkglobal.com for additional insight and investment solutions.

High-Risk Bull Market Continue

Bob Doll's weekly market commentary reviews recent market action and argues that the “high-risk” bull market persists despite growing warning signs.
Last week stocks were mixed: the S&P 500 slipped modestly while small caps and international markets outperformed; real estate, staples, and industrials led gains while financials and discretionary lagged.
Key risks highlighted include rising yields outside the U.S. Treasury curve, surging margin debt, widening spreads in the lowest-rated corporate bonds, and accelerating commodity prices — all of which could trigger the next risk-off phase if a catalyst emerges.
Despite these concerns, accommodative policy, solid corporate earnings (led by technology), and resilient global growth should sustain the risk-on backdrop for now — but investors should watch rates, credit spreads, and margin positions closely.
For a copy of this week Doll's Deliberations click on the following link January 20 or go to www.crossmarkglobal.com for additional insight and investment solutions.

Fundamentals Are Good — Prices Already Reflect It

Bob Doll reviews recent market gains as major indexes hit all-time highs and argues that strong economic fundamentals and policy support are already priced into asset values.
He warns that rich equity valuations, tight credit spreads, rising bond yields, and geopolitical and policy risks make further broad gains harder and increase vulnerability to setbacks in 2026.
His bottom line: favor equities over bonds on a 6–12 month horizon but expect lower returns than 2025 and prepare for periodic volatility.
For a copy of this week's Doll's Deliberations click on the following link January 12 or go to www.crossmarkglobal.com for additional insight and investment solutions.

High-Risk Bull Market: 10 Predictions for 2026

Bob Doll reviews 2025’s broad market rally and outlines 10 concise predictions for 2026, centered on a "high-risk bull market."
Key themes: modest U.S. growth, sticky inflation keeping yields higher, tighter credit conditions, slowing earnings growth, sector leadership in tech/financials, continued AI-driven volatility, and potential international outperformance.
Actionable takeaway: markets are priced for perfection—exercise caution, be ready to cut beta if yields spike or AI euphoria fades. Tune in for the annual prediction webinar on January 7.
Click on the following link to register for the Live Webinar on January 7, 2026 at 3 p.m. CT.  Bob Doll's 10 Predictions for 2026 registration - Webex   Mark your calendar.
For a copy of this week's Doll's Deliberations click on the January 5 or go to www.crossmarkglobal.com for additional insight and investment solutions.

2025 Predictions - What We Got Right and Wrong

Bob Doll reviews \d examines 10 predictions for 2025, concluding seven were correct. He summarizes the year’s markets: a third straight year of double-digit S&P gains, AI-driven earnings strength, a tariff-triggered drop and strong rebound, and ongoing investor optimism for 2026.
The episode highlights key themes—slower economic growth with slightly higher unemployment, sticky inflation, Treasury yields mostly between 4%–5%, elevated volatility, mixed sector and portfolio performance, and partial policy changes—then offers a cautious outlook for 2026. The next issue is due Dec. 31.
For a copy of this week's Doll's Deliberations click on the following link December 15 or go to www.crossmarkglobal.com for additional insight and investment solutions.

Favorable Fundamentals, But Prices Reflect That

Stocks posted modest gains as investors priced in a likely December Fed move, but valuations are rich and late-cycle conditions raise the risk of limited returns and higher-than-usual volatility in 2026. Economic growth remains sturdy, inflation is likely to stay above target, and expectations for aggressive Fed cuts may be overly optimistic.
Crossmark’s outlook is cautiously constructive for risk assets but favors a defensive posture: moderate total returns are most likely, yet heightened volatility and the chance of a broad correction argue for shorter-than-normal risk exposure and a buffer against downside surprises. AI remains a dominant theme but may not meet inflated expectations.
For a copy of this week's Doll's Deliberations click on the following link December 8 or go to www.crossmarkglobal.com for additional insight and investment solutions.

Macro Crossroads: Fed, AI, and Outlook

Issue 5.48 examines the macro environment heading into 2026: steady growth despite policy noise, supportive consumer and corporate finances, the lift from AI capex, and an outlook of real GDP around 2–2.5% with inflation near 3%.
Investment implications include richly priced equities and tight credit spreads, limited upside for returns, and upside risks to inflation if the Fed under-delivers on expected rate cuts—suggesting caution in bonds and equity valuations and a focus on earnings and policy developments.
For a copy of this week's Doll's Deliberations click on the following link December 1 or go to www.crossmarkglobal.com for additional insight and investment solutions.