Doll’s Deliberations

The Fed's Focus on the labor market (at the expense of inflation) paves the way for a rate cut

In this episode Bob Doll reviews the latest market moves, noting a record-setting stock rally amid a dovish Fed poised to cut rates even as core inflation remains stubborn and hiring cools. He explains how tariffs, slower immigration-driven labor growth, and strong corporate profits are shaping a slow-growth, mildly inflationary backdrop.
Listeners will learn why markets are upbeat despite valuation risks, what indicators to watch (inflation, employment, bond yields), and how monetary and fiscal policy may influence risk assets in the months ahead.
For a copy of this week's Doll's Deliberations click on the following link September 15 or go to www.crossmarkglobal.com for additional insight and investment solutions.

Earnings Are Supportive, But Rich Valuations Limit Potential

Bob Doll reviews the week: mixed markets with the S&P up, weak August payrolls that boosted Treasury prices and Fed-cut expectations, and uneven sector performance driven by MAG-7 strength and sticky inflation.
He concludes that earnings and supportive policy fuel a positive outlook, but stretched valuations, rising long-term yields, and persistent inflation make returns likely bumpy and the risk-reward less favorable.
For a copy of this week's Doll's Deliberations click on the following link Doll’s Deliberations - Crossmark Global Investments or go to www.crossmarkglobal.com for additional insight and investment solutions.

Valuation Concerns Are Never a Timing Tool

Bob Doll reviews last week’s market moves, sector performance, and corporate earnings while highlighting growing tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve. Investors remain focused on the prospect of lower short-term rates even as inflation and policy uncertainty rise.
The episode argues that valuations are not a reliable market-timing tool and explains why ongoing Fed dovishness will sustain a liquidity-driven, risk-on environment for now, even as higher inflation may push long-term yields up (a bear steepening) and eventually pressure long-duration assets.
Key takeaways include upward GDP revisions, strengthening earnings, threats to Fed independence, tariff-driven headwinds, low volatility, dollar pressure, and potential small-cap leadership if dovish policy continues.
For copy of this week's Doll's Deliberations click on the following link Doll’s Deliberations or go to Crossmarkglobal.com for more insight and investment solutions.

Threading the Needle Gets Tougher

This episode reviews last week’s market action where the S&P 500 finished slightly higher and sector leadership was led by energy, real estate, and financials while tech lagged.
Bob Doll explains why stretched MegaCap valuations, ample liquidity, and rising hopes for Fed rate cuts have driven a risk-on rally — but warns the backdrop is fragile: markets must ‘‘thread the needle’’ between weakening corporate earnings and a potential rise in long-term bond yields.
Key takeaways include Powell’s dovish tone boosting rate-cut odds, slowing retail and housing data, easing wage growth, compressed volatility, and concentrated market gains — concluding that risk-on sentiment may persist until earnings or yields shift materially.
For a copy of this week's Doll's Deliberations click on the following link Doll’s Deliberations or go to www.crossmarkglobal.com for additional insight or investment solutions.

Markets Priced for Falling Inflation — We're Skeptical

Bob Doll reviews last week’s market action: stocks rose near record highs amid strong earnings and expectations of imminent Fed rate cuts, while small caps and select sectors led gains.
He cautions that inflation metrics remain above the Fed’s 2% target and that tariffs, fiscal stimulus, and concentrated market leadership create upside inflation and policy risks that could reverse current complacency.
For a copy of this week's Doll's Deliberations click on the following link August 18 or go to www.crossmarkglobal.com for additional insight and investment solutions.

Is the Bull Run in Extra Innings?

In this episode of Doll's Deliberations, Bob Doll discusses the positive performance of the S&P 500 amidst growing expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and clarity around tariffs. Despite concerns about stagflation, certain sectors like technology and communication services have shown impressive growth.
The episode delves into the investment landscape, questioning whether the bull market is in its 'extra innings' due to abundant liquidity and global monetary policies acting as buffers against higher tariffs. It emphasizes the importance of sustaining corporate profits and labor demand in navigating economic uncertainties.
Key insights include expectations for future economic growth, potential inflation impacts, and the influence of U.S. trade policies. With equity markets at elevated valuations, the discussion underscores the need for caution amidst global economic complexities.
For a copy of this week's Doll's Deliberations click on the following link August 11 or go to www.crossmarkglobal.com for additional insight and investment solutions.

Risk-reward Turning Unfavorable

In this episode of Doll’s Deliberations, host Bob Doll explores the recent market downturn following a week of record highs. Learn about the factors driving the decline, including disappointing July non-farm payrolls and concerns over growth and inflation. Despite strong earnings from many companies, the market faces uncertainties, particularly from new U.S. tariff announcements and ongoing economic slowdown.
Doll discusses the implications of these developments on the risk-reward relationship in the current investment climate, arguing for greater investor caution. Explore how high valuations and expectations, notably in the tech sector, impact the overall market outlook and potential strategies to navigate these challenges.
For a copy of this week’s Doll’s Deliberations go to www.crossmarkglobal.com.  

Early Tariff Angst and Fading Recession Risks Embolden Investors

The latest episode of Doll's Deliberations dives into the recent market trends, highlighting a positive turn as stocks hit record highs. Bob Doll discusses the impact of second-quarter earnings exceeding expectations and how easing tariff tensions give investors newfound confidence. With healthcare, materials, and industrials leading the charge, the U.S. economy appears resilient despite high tariff levels.
While the risk of a recession diminishes, the episode explores the complexities of U.S. trade policy and its stagflationary impacts. It addresses key economic indicators and the possible outcomes of upcoming Federal Reserve decisions. Join Bob Doll as he provides a concise and insightful overview of the current financial landscape, equipping listeners to face the week ahead with informed perspectives.
For a copy of this week Doll's Deliberations click on the following link July 28 or go to www.crossmarkglobal.com for additional insight and investment solutions.

The Bond Market is more Key than Usual

In this episode of Doll's Deliberations, host Bob Doll provides expert insights into the current state of the markets. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit record highs, while President Trump's disputes with the Fed create market ripples. Technology and utilities emerge as top-performing sectors, whereas energy and health care fall behind.
Bob discusses the potential market implications of a more dovish Fed and its effects on the U.S. Dollar and bond market. The episode explores the resilience of the U.S. economy amidst tariffs, the persistent inflationary pressures, and the possibility of a delayed Fed easing cycle.
With a focus on economic indicators and fiscal policies, Bob Doll outlines the complexities of navigating investments during this volatile period. Tune in for a comprehensive market update and strategic guidance to stay ahead in these uncertain times.
For a copy of this week's Doll's Deliberations click on the following line July 21 or go to www.crossmarkglobal.com for additional insight and investment solutions. 

Second Half Begins with New Highs Yet Again

Welcome to Doll's Deliberations, where Bob Doll explores the intriguing dynamics shaping the global financial landscape this July. Despite a modest drop in stocks last week, both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit new all-time highs, marking the beginning of another promising quarter. With the CPI and second-quarter earnings reports on the horizon, investors brace for potential fluctuations amidst ongoing tariff tensions.
This episode delves into the complexities of economic growth in the face of U.S. trade wars, examining how investors remain focused on corporate profitability and underlying economic health despite uncertainty. The discussion expands to global economic trends, reflecting on how U.S. policy and monetary easing are influencing markets worldwide.
Join us as we unpack key insights, including shifts in hiring patterns, geopolitical tensions, and the anticipated reactions from the Federal Reserve. Tune in for a thought-provoking analysis on what these developments mean for investors and economic strategies moving forward.
If you would like a copy of this week's Doll's Deliberations click on the following link July 14 or go to www.crossmarkglobal.com for additional insight and investment solutions.